2021 NFL Draft Stat Primer

We are just about a week away from the 2021 NFL Draft. What are the key trends and storylines to monitor for the draft?

• The Jaguars, Jets, and 49ers are poised to take a Quarterback with the first 3 draft picks.

QB’s who have been picked in the top 3, since 2011

*Combined number of contract extensions: 5 (Murray and Burrow not yet eligible)

Records of teams in the year following drafting QB 1st overall: 

• 2011 Carolina Panthers: 6-10
• 2012 Indianapolis Colts: 11-5
• 2015 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-10
• 2016 LA Rams: 4-12
• 2018 Cleveland Browns: 7-8-1
• 2019 Arizona Cardinals: 5-10-1
• 2020 Cincinnati Bengals: 4-11-1

Combined record: 43-66-3

Average wins: 6.1

Lawrence and the First Overall Pick

• Trevor Lawrence would be the 4th player from the ACC (1st from Clemson) to be drafted first overall

There’s only 3 positions to look at with 1st overall pick

• Since 1997, the only positions that have produced #1 picks are QB, DE, OT
• Last time a WR went 1st overall: 1996 (Keyshawn Johnson)
• Last time a RB went 1st overall: 1995 (Ki-Jana Carter)
• Last time a DT went 1st overall: 1994 (Dan Wilkinson)
• Last time a ILB went 1st overall: 1979 (Tom Cousineau)
• A DB has never been selected 1st overall

1st round Jaguar QB’s

• Byron Leftwich (7th overall in 2003)
• Blaine Gabbert (10th overall in 2011)
• Blake Bortles (3rd overall in 2014)

1st round Jet QB’s

• Sandy Stephens (5th overall in 1962)
• Joe Namath (1st overall in 1965)
• Richard Todd (6th overall in 1976)
• Ken O’Brien (24th overall in 1983)
• Chad Pennington (18th overall in 2000)
• Mark Sanchez (5th overall in 2009)
• Sam Darnold (3rd overall in 2018)

1st round 49er QB’s

• Y.A. Tittle (3rd overall in 1951)
• Earl Morrall (2nd overall in 1956)
• John Brodie (3rd overall in 1957)
• Billy Kilmer (11th overall in 1961)
• Steve Spurrier (3rd overall in 1967)
• Jim Druckenmiller (26th overall in 1997)
• Alex Smith (1st overall in 2005)

What will the Falcons do at 4?

• This is the highest the Atlanta Falcons are picking in the draft since 2008 when they took Matt Ryan with the 3rd pick.
• Falcons have made 4 trades in the 1st round since 2011 (all trades have been to move up in the draft)
• Every starting skill position player on the Falcons roster is from the SEC (Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley – Alabama, Mike Davis and Hayden Hurst – South Carolina, and Russell Gage – LSU)
• Is Kyle Pitts the next SEC player to join the Falcons receiving group?

Will the Bengals continue to invest in the O-Line?

• The Bengals have drafted offensive lineman in 3 of the past 6 drafts
• They have started a combined 54 games
• Rashawn Slater: 37 career college starts (Opted out of 2020 NCAA Season)
• Penei Sewell: 20 career college starts (Opted out of 2020 NCAA Season)

SEC looks to reign supreme in the NFL Draft once again

• Kyle Pitts has eyes on being the first TE selected in the top 5 since 1972 when Riley Odoms was drafted by the Denver Broncos
• If Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith go in the 1st round, Alabama will be the first school to ever have a pair of WR’s go in the 1st round back to back years.
• 2 of top CB’s expected to go off the board early are Patrick Surtain (SEC Defensive Player of the Year) and Jaycee Horn (23rd all time in the SEC for passes defended with 23)
• 24 of the last 64 first round draft picks have come from the SEC

3 NFC East teams will in sequential order from 10-12

• Since 2013, the Dallas Cowboys have made 7 first round picks (5 have become pro bowlers)
• 9 of the last 11 New York Giants’ first round draft picks have come from the ACC or SEC
• The Philadelphia Eagles have selected offensive players (2 WR’s) in 4 of their last 5 first round picks

Teams without a first round pick:

• Houston Texans (First pick they make is 67th overall in Round 3)
• Seattle Seahawks (Fewest picks in the 2021 draft with 4)
• LA Rams (Have not picked in the first round since 2016 and are not scheduled to pick in the 1st round until 2024)

Teams with multiple first round picks: 

• Jacksonville Jaguars (1, 25)
• New York Jets (2, 23)
• Miami Dolphins (6, 18)

Teams that could trade up for QB:

• Teams with a veteran starting QB making $10 million or less: Patriots, Washington, Bears
• Teams with a QB in the midst of rookie deal who have not won 10 games in 5+ years: Giants and Broncos
• Teams with legendary QB’s to replace or think about replacing: Steelers, Saints, Bucs

How do you see the 1st round of the 2021 NFL Draft unfolding? What are you most excited for? Let me know on Twitter @James_Costanz.